Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 0.441756 0.511122 0.587002 0.676059 0.777605 0.889669 1.022596
2025-07-13 0.331581 0.427301 0.542681 0.691467 0.877670 1.102377 1.393437
2025-07-20 0.279070 0.388966 0.531056 0.727042 0.988982 1.325454 1.788628
2025-07-27 0.239608 0.356389 0.516361 0.749488 1.078117 1.521965 2.163331
2025-08-03 0.205939 0.324433 0.495221 0.756371 1.141917 1.685631 2.504649
2025-08-10 0.177391 0.294520 0.471330 0.753691 1.188212 1.825077 2.820455
2025-08-17 0.152926 0.266660 0.445888 0.743843 1.220187 1.943393 3.112293
2025-08-24 0.133071 0.242985 0.423312 0.734531 1.249977 2.058390 3.405882
2025-08-31 0.113907 0.217517 0.394256 0.710473 1.252226 2.128618 3.632765
2025-09-07 0.107984 0.214344 0.401965 0.748188 1.358731 2.372734 4.156679
2025-09-14 0.094031 0.194457 0.377997 0.727866 1.363763 2.449221 4.408598
2025-09-21 0.082223 0.176929 0.356038 0.708291 1.367313 2.522032 4.657975
2025-09-28 0.072036 0.161408 0.336399 0.691582 1.375707 2.606214 4.938546
2025-10-05 0.066707 0.155136 0.333879 0.707282 1.445783 2.805979 5.441544
2025-10-12 0.064043 0.154119 0.341576 0.743611 1.558089 3.090795 6.120286
2025-10-19 0.060287 0.150143 0.342670 0.766533 1.645981 3.336502 6.744170
2025-10-26 0.055509 0.143134 0.336493 0.773562 1.702392 3.526201 7.275239
2025-11-02 0.050478 0.134772 0.326328 0.770826 1.738130 3.677786 7.742610
2025-11-09 0.045471 0.125715 0.313498 0.760769 1.757292 3.797456 8.155017
2025-11-16 0.041061 0.117484 0.301543 0.751259 1.776439 3.917954 8.576927
2025-11-23 0.036215 0.107366 0.283898 0.726689 1.760076 3.963636 8.848416
2025-11-30 0.035490 0.108178 0.292744 0.765206 1.888059 4.320721 9.791827
2025-12-07 0.031616 0.099715 0.277604 0.744452 1.878810 4.384297 10.118785